[Introduction] In 2022, the whole PS market in China follows the logic of cost, so the price of PS has the strongest correlation with raw material styrene, and its correlation coefficient has reached 0.97 since 2022, which is highly correlated. At the same time, the correlation between supply data and PS price is obviously negative, and the correlation coefficient is -0.79, showing a certain correlation.
From the correlation analysis, the PS output and the monthly average price in the first half of the year were significantly negatively correlated, and the correlation coefficient was -0.79, which reflected that in addition to the cost-driven rise in the PS market in the first half of the year, the output decline had a great impact on the price support. Reflecting the supply data on the price side of the impact of negative correlation.
In 2022, China’s PS production opened high and went low, showing a downward trend as a whole, especially in June and July, which hit a two-year low, with the output below 230,000 tons. However, the current capacity base is 1.02 million tons higher than the same period in 2021, an increase of 27%. In July, China PS production 223700 tons, month-on-month -2.27%, year-on-year -11.89%; The cumulative output was 1.9818 million tons, +13.11% year on year. Within the month, most of the industry profits were in the negative range, and the production reduction range of the equipment was large, such as CITIC Guoan, Zhenjiang Qimei, Yashida, Shanghai Secco, Ningbo Taichua, Ineos Benling, Tianyuan, Xinghui, XinZhongmei, Saibaolong, Baosheng, Haoyuan, Lanhua, Jade Emperor, etc. Some units were also restarted or increased production, such as Ningbo Taichua, Guangdong Xinghui and Ningbo Liwan.
The negative correlation between supply data and PS prices may become more prominent, while the positive correlation with costs may decline, with the potential impact of new installations coming on stream in the second half of 2022.
Post time: Aug-31-2022